Consumer debt is at ‘doomsday levels.’
This is a headline that has grabbed the attention of many newspapers and
media outlets in recent weeks.
We are as a nation, say the experts ‘a lot of debt.’ The levels of debt facing consumers mean “the economy will come crashing down,” say some economists.
Young people are in five times more debt than over-55s.
It is not just young people who are struggling under the burden of debt.
More people are using credit cards for everyday spending such as rent
and food since wages have stagnated (and in some cases dropped in real terms)
for over a decade.
The debt held by the government, known as Sovereign debt is approaching an
all-time record high.
It is unsecured debt that is the real worry. This has seen the biggest jump over the last ten years. Credit card debt and overdrafts have seen the biggest rises.
Some debt is seen as ‘good,’ such as mortgages and student loans.
What will consumer debt look like in the future? What does the future hold for our young people?
Experts have widely predicted ‘catastrophic consequences’ of this debt
pile.
In the USA, The Aspen Institute, which
is an international non-profit think tank founded in , describes
the situation as a crisis.
It claims that unprecedented levels of debts (and defaults) in the US will ‘impact at every level. Individual, family, community, and for the nation as a whole’. It believes that the bubble will burst and when it does, prison numbers will rise, healthcare will be unaffordable and governments will be ‘forced’ to bail out banks and individuals without the means to support themselves.
According to Howard Dvorkin, chairman of Debt.com:-
The future of debt is a ‘doomsday
scenario’ future generations will have to deal with. ‘I have no clue when it
will come crashing down. I just know it will.’
He told Metro.co.uk. He believes that,
although finance industry tech advances will be significant, they won’t solve
debt and we’ll “borrow more because we can” rather than having long-term goals
in mind.
‘Short-term thinking hasn’t yet been
bred out of our evolutionary thinking,’ he says. “We’re a species still focused
on our next meal, not dinner 20 years from now. We borrow now for the same
reason we don’t save for retirement, because it’s now. The three deadliest
letters in the English language are N-O-W.”
Dvorkin claims that, as a result of how much we’re all in, the way we look at debt will change, with shame around a ‘life for rent’ no longer applying.
‘Lifetime loans’ becoming normal.
In the future, Dvorkin expects to see what he calls ‘lifetime loans’ becoming normal.
“Student loan programs already extend
your payment terms out decades. Auto loans are already at an all-time high of
65 months, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that eventually approaches
mortgage-like spans. I’ve seen 97-month auto loans out there.”
The only way he believes we can stop lifetimes
of debt from blighting future generations is by ending demand.
In a recent research paper, political
economist Johnna Montgomerie called household debt “one of the biggest problems
facing the United Kingdom’s economy and society.”
She said that levels are ‘historically unprecedented’.
What does all this mean for future generations?
No one can predict exactly how the
future will unfold, but we can use the knowledge and information out there to
make an informed opinion. This is what
experts and economists do.
They say consequences from lower levels of disposable income (we’ve already seen lower levels of homeownership among young people as they don’t have enough for deposits), problems with saving for retirement, and even widespread health problems caused by the stress of unmanageable debt. ‘Low interest rates and longer mortgage durations are the two key factors that pushed consumers to borrow more.’
John Wilson, professor of banking and finance at the University of St Andrews, said: –
“But low paid, gig economy jobs, in-work poverty and changes to the benefits system are also likely to be factors causing consumers to increase debt.”
The solution, Prof Wilson believes, is
financial literacy and ‘transparency in the consumer credit market’. Over 80%
of 15 to 18-year-olds in the UK want more financial education, and 69%
regularly worry about money and their personal finances. A pilot scheme from
the Money Advice Service found that parents and children who attended financial
courses were more open about money, and there was a 15% reduction in debt among
the families who took part.
But this would battle against the
constant advertising asking us to consume more, whatever the cost.
The complacency around debt tabled by
Dvorkin can be seen in the fact that one in five millennials believe they will
die with debt. They don’t trust traditional finance and are looking elsewhere
for solutions to their stagnated wages.
A key difference between people’s
ability to cope with increasing debt is seen as the education they are given
when young.
“Differences in financial knowledge will impact on income and wealth prospects during an individual’s lifetime,” Prof Wilson says. “Fintech will play a key role going forward as providers will use “big data” to know their clients better and price risk more accurately.”
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“over 12 years of dedicated advice.”
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